UK June payrolls change +31k vs +90k prior

Prior +90k
June claimant count change -20.0k
Prior -19.7k
May ILO unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.9% expected
Prior 3.8%
May employment change 296k vs 170k expected
Prior 177k

May average weekly earnings +6.2% vs +6.7% 3m/y expected
Prior +6.8%
May average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +4.3% vs +4.3% 3m/y expected
Prior +4.2%

The number of payrolled employees in the UK increased by 0.1% in June, rising to 29.6 million persons – holding well above pre-pandemic levels. ONS notes that the data for this month should be treated as provisional, because it is based on an early estimate of June 2022 employees. Meanwhile, the jobless rate is seen steady at 3.8% in the three months to May.

Overall, this still points to solid labour market conditions in the UK and that hasn’t really changed much in recent months. This will be a key spot to be wary of in case the cost-of-living crisis starts to have a broader impact on the economy.