Hundred off the table?

What a difference 24 hours make. Just yesterday, markets were increasingly convinced that the Fed will push for a 100 bps rate hike in two weeks’ time and all of a sudden after remarks from Waller and Bullard, we’re back to thinking 75 bps instead.

As things stand, dollar sentiment in the short-term and run up to the FOMC meeting will hinge mostly on market pricing on what the Fed will do. The wild swings yesterday offer up a taste of how policymakers can dictate the state of play and they are pushing the narrative to economic data in the week ahead.

All of that will start with today’s US retail sales data before a couple of housing numbers through Monday to Wednesday. At least that is what Waller is alluding to with his comments here.

Nonetheless, USD/JPY stayed buoyed and is keeping close to 139.00 while EUR/USD averted a daily close below parity but remains vulnerable near the key psychological level. USD/CAD while seeing gains pared back somewhat, still managed a daily close and technical break above resistance around 1.3076-83. The pair is now trading little changed at 1.3105 on the day.

Ethan Andrews

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